Intro to Systems Thinking: The Iceberg Model
Learn to see deeper than surface problems. Find real solutions by understanding what is really going on.
Watch: Understanding the Iceberg Model
Watch this video first. It shows how the iceberg model works.
What you will learn from the video:
- Systems thinking helps you see how problems connect
- The iceberg model shows hidden causes
- Working deeper creates longer lasting change
- Beliefs are the most powerful thing to change
What Is Systems Thinking?
Systems thinking helps you see the whole picture.
Most people ask "What happened?" Systems thinking asks "Why did this happen?"
Here is an example: You see a traffic jam. You could just be mad at the cars. Or you could ask better questions.
Why is there always a jam here at 5pm? What about the road causes this? Why was the road built this way?
Systems thinking moves you from quick fixes to real solutions.
Why This Matters
- You understand root causes, not just symptoms
- You know where to focus your energy
- You see connections between problems
- You avoid solutions that make things worse
- You create change that lasts
The Iceberg Model: Four Levels
The iceberg model shows how problems have layers.
Like a real iceberg, most of it is hidden underwater. Only 10 percent shows above water. The other 90 percent is below.
Problems in our communities work the same way. What we see is just the tip. The real causes are deeper.
Events
What just happened? This is what you see
Events are things we see every day. They are quick. They are easy to spot.
When something happens, we usually react fast. We do not think about what caused it.
How people react to events: We fix the problem right now. We put out fires. We blame someone.
A family loses their home. They cannot pay rent. The quick fix is to give them a place to stay tonight.
Patterns
What keeps happening over time?
Patterns show us what happens again and again.
We step back. We look at more than just one event. We see the same thing keep happening.
Questions to ask: Has this happened before? When? How many times?
More families lose housing each year. It has been getting worse for five years. Wait times for housing get longer.
Structures
What systems and rules cause these patterns?
Structures are the systems that shape what happens.
This means laws, budgets, rules, and who has power. These create the patterns we see.
Questions to ask: What rules affect this? How do the parts connect? Who decides?
Laws limit where affordable housing can be built. Wages have not gone up while housing costs more. The government gives less money for public housing each year.
Mental Models
What beliefs create these structures?
Mental models are the deepest level.
They are beliefs and values people hold. These shape everything above them.
Mental models are powerful. They control what solutions people think will work.
Questions to ask: What do people believe about this? What are we assuming? What do we value?
People believe housing is something to buy and sell, not a right. People think if you cannot afford housing, it is your fault. Property owners matter more than renters.
Going Deeper Is More Powerful
Each level down gives you more power to create change.
At the event level, you are just reacting.
When you change mental models at the bottom, you change entire systems.
The deeper you go, the more your solutions will last.
Questions to Ask at Each Level
Events
What just happened? What is the problem I can see?
Patterns
What has been happening over time? How has this changed?
Structures
What systems, rules, or relationships affect these patterns?
Mental Models
What beliefs create these structures? What are we assuming is true?
How to Use the Iceberg Model
This tool works best when you use it with other people.
Different people see different parts. Working together helps you see the whole picture.
Follow These Steps
🎯 Try This Exercise
Pick a problem you care about. Then answer these questions:
- Events: What problem do I see? What is happening right now?
- Patterns: Has this happened before? How often? What changes over time?
- Structures: What rules affect this? How do things connect? Who has power?
- Mental Models: What beliefs create these rules? What do people value?
- Where to Act: Where can I make the most change?
Real Examples
School Quality
Event: A school gets low test scores
Pattern: Some neighborhood schools always struggle
Structure: School money comes from property taxes
Belief: Good schools depend on where you live
Clean Air
Event: Kids have asthma
Pattern: Health problems happen in poor areas
Structure: Factories are near certain neighborhoods
Belief: Some communities are okay to pollute
Getting Around
Event: Workers miss jobs due to late buses
Pattern: Buses are bad in certain areas
Structure: Bus routes go to rich areas first
Belief: People without cars do not deserve good buses
Tips for Good Analysis
- Start with what you see: Begin at events and go down
- Ask "why" many times: Each answer takes you deeper
- Include different voices: People affected see things you miss
- Look for connections: How do parts affect each other?
- Question what seems normal: Maybe it does not have to be that way
- Focus on what you can change: Go as deep as you can
Using Systems Thinking to Create Change
Understanding the iceberg is just the start.
The real power comes from using it to create change.
Finding the Best Place to Act
Some places in a system give you more power than others.
The deeper you go in the iceberg, the more powerful you become.
Different levels of action:
- Event level: Help people right now (fast but does not last)
- Pattern level: Stop problems before they happen
- Structure level: Change rules and systems
- Mental model level: Change what people believe (hardest but most powerful)
🎯 Check Your Work
Look at the work you do or want to do. Ask yourself:
- What level am I working at?
- Am I just reacting to events?
- What would it look like to go one level deeper?
- What beliefs need to change?
- Who else needs to help?
Working at Many Levels at Once
Good work often needs action at many levels.
You might need to:
- Help people now while also working to change laws
- Fix urgent problems while building movements
- Repair broken systems while questioning beliefs
The key is knowing which level you are at and why.
Do not stay stuck just reacting to events. Always look for ways to go deeper.
Questions for Planning
- What event got your attention?
- What patterns do you notice?
- What structures make patterns keep happening?
- What beliefs need to change?
- Where do you have power to create change?
- Who else needs to be involved?
- How can you work at many levels?
Next Steps: Keep Learning
The iceberg model is your starting point.
Once you know how to use it, you can learn other tools.
More Tools to Try
Loop Diagrams
Learn to map how actions create cycles in systems.
Time Graphs
Track how problems change over time.
Best Places to Act
Find the most powerful places to make change.
Systems Maps
Draw pictures of how parts of a system connect.
From Learning to Doing
Understanding systems is just step one. The real work is using what you learned.
Systems thinking connects social, money, environment, and wellbeing
Your Learning Path
- Start Here: Use the iceberg model every day
- Next Step: Learn more tools and use them on real problems
- Getting Better: Help others learn and use these tools
- Expert Level: Lead big projects and change how groups think
Books and Websites to Help You
These can help you learn more:
- "Thinking in Systems" by Donella Meadows: The best book to start with
- The Waters Foundation: Free tools you can use
- Systems Innovation Network: Online classes
- Donella Meadows Project: Tools from the expert (Visit their website)
Free Worksheets You Can Print
Practice with these free worksheets:
🎯 Are You Ready for More?
Before moving on, make sure you can:
- Find all four levels of any problem
- Explain the four levels to others
- Spot when you are only at the event level
- Ask questions that find beliefs
- See how problems connect
If you can do these things, you are ready for more tools!
Start Practicing Today
Systems thinking gets easier with practice.
The more you use it, the more natural it feels.
Ways to Practice This Skill
Practice with Others
Use the iceberg in your next meeting. Pick a problem and map it together.
Look at News
When you read news, ask what patterns and beliefs might be underneath.
Listen to People
Talk to people affected by problems. They often understand the deeper causes.
Question Normal
When you think "that's just how it is," ask what beliefs make it that way.
🎯 30-Day Challenge
Practice every day for a month:
- Week 1: Notice events. Write down problems you see.
- Week 2: Look for patterns. Do these events happen a lot?
- Week 3: Find structures. What systems create these patterns?
- Week 4: Explore beliefs. What do people believe that creates all this?
After one month, you will be good at using all four levels.
Work with Others
Systems thinking works better with other people.
Different views help you see what you miss.
- Share this tool with your group
- Use it to talk about your plans
- Include people affected by the problem
- Find partners working at different levels
- Create a learning group
Remember: Change Takes Time
Working at deeper levels takes longer to show results.
Changing beliefs and structures is harder than fixing quick problems.
But the impact lasts much longer.
Be patient. Systems thinking is practice, not a one-time thing.
Every time you look below the surface, you get better at creating lasting change.
Ready to Use Systems Thinking?
Find more tools and resources to keep learning and create bigger impact.
See Learning Center →